NOAA Predicts Above-Average Hurricane Activity
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) anticipates a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. Their forecast includes:
13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, with winds of 111 mph or higher)
These projections are based on factors such as warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, ENSO-neutral conditions, weak wind shear, and increased activity from the West African Monsoon—all conducive to hurricane development .
Implications for Canada
While hurricanes primarily affect the U.S., Canada is not immune. Bob Robichaud, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Hurricane Centre, notes that historically, about 35% to 40% of Atlantic storms enter Canada's "response zone," which encompasses areas with potential storm impacts .
In 2024, the remnants of Hurricane Debby caused significant flooding in Quebec and Ontario, with rainfall exceeding 200 mm in some regions. This event resulted in over CAD 2.8 billion in insured damages, marking it as one of Canada's costliest weather disasters .
Enhanced Forecasting and Preparedness
Advancements in hurricane forecasting have improved accuracy significantly. NOAA's forecasts have become more precise, with track accuracy increasing by 75% and intensity forecasts improving by 50% since 1992 . For the 2025 season, NOAA has introduced updates such as earlier storm track releases and enhanced inundation mapping to better inform the public .
Preparing for the Season
Given the forecasted increase in hurricane activity, residents in hurricane-prone areas, including parts of Canada, should:
Develop or review emergency preparedness plans
Stay informed through reliable weather updates
Ensure insurance coverage is adequate
Prepare emergency kits with essential supplies
Early preparation can mitigate risks and enhance safety during hurricane events.